Smaller STI Futures, Bigger Singapore Market Opportunities

18 Mar 2026

The SGX Straits Times Index (STI) Futures contract is a derivative instrument based on the STI Index. Trading STI futures is equivalent to trading a synthetic portfolio representing the 30 constituent stocks of the STI listed on the Singapore Exchange. This provides broad market exposure and reduces reliance on individual stock selection, while diversifying risk across multiple blue‑chip companies instead of a single security.

 

STI Futures will trade in smaller notional size from 9 March 2026

Effective from 9 March 2026, STI Futures will trade in a reduced contract size of 1/5 of its original value, SGX STI Futures contract essentially becomes a micro contract with a smaller notional value of approximately SGD10,000 and a finer tick size of 0.5 index point. 

The contract provides flexibility for investors to trade bi-directionally, supporting effective hedging and protection strategies against declining equity markets.

 

Budget 2026

FY2025 overall fiscal surplus was S$15.1bn (1.9% of GDP), more than double the estimated surplus of S$6.8bn, driven by higher-than-expected corporate income tax collections and strong revenue from asset-related fees like Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums. FY2026 is expected to record a surplus of S$8.5bn (1% of GDP).

 

  1. AI Focus: The FY2026 budget made a strategic pivot on AI. It comes from S$37bn in research spending, tax deductions, and AI-related grants, with PM Wong chairing the new National AI Council.
  2. Capital Markets: There will be a S$1.5bn top-up to the Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP), bringing it to S$6.5bn; S$1bn to enhance Startup SG Equity for growth-stage financing; a Lifetime Retirement Investment Scheme for CPF members; and a second S$1.5bn Anchor Fund for high-quality public listings. The next batch of EQDP managers is expected to be appointed mid-2026.
  3. Handouts: S$500 CDC vouchers for 1.4mn Singaporean households in January 2027, and S$200–S$400 in cost-of-living special payments (Income <= S$100k).
  4. Real Estate: Ramping up of supply of HDB flats, with 19,600 BTO flats to be launched in 2026, as part of a plan to offer ~55,000 flats from 2025 to 2027. 

 

We maintain a constructive view on Singapore equities, but cautious near-term, conditional on de-escalation in the Middle-East. Near-term, the market will remain sensitive to Middle East developments, but beyond this volatility, the Singapore equity market remains fundamentally attractive.

Investors will likely need one or more of these before stepping back into markets: a) extreme cheap valuations (not there yet), b) clear de-escalation headlines, or 3) enough time passing to establish confidence that the conflict is contained.

Further escalation, particularly with regards to the new or increased involvement of other countries in the region, and a prolonged halting of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk.

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