The conflict between the US and Iran has entered its fourth day, keeping upward pressure on oil prices as geopolitical risk premiums continue to build. Tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade on Iranian ports, prompting retaliatory strikes by Iran on US infrastructure in the region. The developments have renewed concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Both WTI and Brent crude futures gained another 2% as markets reacted to the heightened risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Since ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed, crude oil prices have risen by nearly 12%, reflecting growing concerns over the stability of regional energy supplies.
As of 10:15 a.m. Singapore time, WTI futures were trading comfortably above US$80 per barrel, while Brent hovered around US$86 per barrel.
Meanwhile, US inflation unexpectedly eased for the first time in six years, largely reflecting the temporary decline in energy prices during the brief ceasefire period. However, markets have largely viewed the data as backward-looking. Attention is now shifting to whether the recent rebound in oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions will feed into higher inflation in the coming months.
Looking ahead, geopolitical developments are expected to remain the primary driver of crude oil prices in the near term. While the physical oil market remains adequately supplied, any further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz or additional sanctions on Iranian exports could tighten market sentiment and drive oil prices higher. As uncertainty persists, heightened volatility is likely to remain a key feature of the energy markets.
