Gold prices have edged lower throughout April amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Markets are bracing for prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz as peace talks continue to stall. As of 11:50am Singapore Standard Time, Gold futures traded at $4,608 per ounce, while spot Gold hovered near $4,595 per ounce.
Gold prices have fallen more than 2.8% this week following reports of President Trump’s dissatisfaction with Iran’s peace proposal. Technically, COMEX Gold Futures retreated from the $4,800 region, which coincided with the 100-day moving average. Fibonacci retracement analysis suggests the next downside support levels are near $4,500, followed by $4,350 around the 200-day moving average.
Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, Gold has struggled to extend gains due to continued strength in the US dollar and expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer. Investors are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials as higher energy prices and inflation risks could delay potential rate cuts, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold.
🛢️ Oil Markets Remain the Key Driver
A recent Wall Street Journal report highlighted President Trump’s instruction to extend the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than escalating military involvement directly, the administration appears focused on increasing economic pressure on Iran by restricting shipping activity through the region.
This has raised concerns that crude oil supply disruptions could persist for an extended period, potentially keeping oil prices above the $100-per-barrel mark. Since the conflict began, both WTI and Brent crude benchmarks have risen nearly 50%.
However, oil prices experienced a brief pullback after UAE officials announced plans to leave OPEC effective 1 May 2026, citing national interests. Markets interpreted the move as a potential signal that the UAE may increase production independently, helping to ease supply concerns.
As of 10:05am Singapore Standard Time, WTI futures traded at $100.08 per barrel while Brent crude rose slightly to $104.62 per barrel.
Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply-side disruptions from the Gulf region. While the broader trend for crude oil remains supportive, volatility is likely to persist as traders react to evolving diplomatic and production developments.
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