Analysis courtesy of Eurex.
The DAX is not really catching the record-breaking mood in the US. There is certainly confidence – but more in the longer term. Incidentally, the DAX has a new composition today: without Porsche and Sartorius, but with SCOUT24 and GEA.
All-time highs on Wall Street, sideways movement here – the trend of recent weeks continues. According to Commerzbank analyst André Sadwosky, this is not likely to change anytime soon. “We do not expect any decisive impetus for the stock markets from either the corporate side or macro data,” explains the analyst. He anticipates consolidation on the stock markets.
On Monday morning, the DAX stood at 23,575 points, down from 23,639 at the close of trading on Friday. The Stoxx Europe 600 is also treading water. By contrast, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq reached new all-time highs on Friday, as did the Russel 2000 small-cap index. One reason for this is last Wednesday’s US interest rate cut – the first this year. In addition, the topic of artificial intelligence continues to provide strong tailwinds. The development of the gold price remains striking: the price per troy ounce has already reached a new all-time high of US$3,716.
“Short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term support”
According to Marthel Edouard of Weberbank, one of the main reasons for the weak performance of local stock markets is the significant appreciation of the euro against the US dollar. This is clouding the earnings prospects of export-oriented companies. “The second-quarter reporting season confirmed this picture,” explains the portfolio manager. In the short term, the bank expects more volatility on the stock markets, but remains confident in the medium to long term. Solid corporate balance sheets, a more moderate monetary policy in the US, and a gradual stabilization of global growth are likely to continue to support the markets. “It remains crucial for investors to maintain a high level of regional diversification, build in risk buffers, and focus more on quality stocks with solid earnings power,” he emphasizes.
“Economic reality falls short of expectations”
According to Robert Halver of Baader Bank, the trend toward lower interest rates in the US also gives other central banks, such as those in emerging markets, more freedom to cut interest rates. “In addition to stimulating the global economy, this is also contributing to the outperformance of emerging market stocks compared to those in industrialized countries,” he explains, referring to the positive performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index this year. Meanwhile, confidence in the “autumn of reforms” is waning on the German stock market. “The ZEW economic data clearly show that the economic reality continues to fall far short of expectations,” he notes. The mood is better than the situation. “If only minor reforms are implemented, German cyclical stocks will benefit from the global economic recovery. However, a special economic situation like in the first half of the year is not to be expected.”
New buy signals
According to DZ Bank, the DAX is in a long-term upward trend in terms of chart analysis. However, there has been a stronger sell-off on the lower time level – from 24,536 points on August 15 to 23,283 points on September 17. The recovery movement of the past few days has contributed to the fact that, in addition to the buy signal from the GD 200, the slow stochastic indicator is now also providing a buy signal again. If follow-up purchases begin today, the price rise above the GD 20 and the daily high of September 19 at 23,785 points (resistance 1) could generate another buy signal. In this scenario, follow-up buying could in turn be triggered up to the GD 50 and the daily high of September 2 at 24,000 points (resistance 2).
Important economic and financial data
Wednesday, 24 September
10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for September. According to Helaba, business sentiment has improved steadily since January, driven by business expectations. However, the ifo index is expected to decline slightly in September.
Thursday, 25 September
2:30 p.m. USA: August durable goods orders. Commerzbank expects a decline of 1 percent compared to the previous month.
Friday, 26 September
2:30 p.m. Price index for consumer spending excluding food and energy in August. According to DekaBank, the effects of tariffs on prices in the US continue to be weaker than originally expected. The deflator for private consumer spending, which the Fed considers to be the most important, is likely to have risen by only 0.2 percent in August compared with the previous month. However, the annual inflation rate remains slightly below 3 percent and thus above the target of 2 percent.
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